28 Feb

Residential Market Commentary – Optimism lives, but concerns persist

General

Posted by: Casey Heppleston


I pulled this article from First National Financial they shared yesterday which is a great summary of the current stats in our housing market. There are a lot of people sitting and waiting to see what happens over the next year and others that are already feeling the pain. I feel when the housing market kicks back up after :

The current wave of economic uncertainty does not seem to be drowning Canadians’ optimism about the housing market.

The annual Canadian Real Estate Industry Trends Report from Re/Max suggests nearly one-third (32%) of Canadian home buyers and sellers have a positive sense that the market could become more balanced this year.

There are, of course, concerns. Inflation and the cost of living weigh on the minds of 34% of Canadians. Closely related to that, 25% are worried about housing affordability, according to the report.

Affordability has become a persistent source of anxiety even though the analysts continue to predict ongoing home price declines. The latest report from Fitch, the global credit rating agency, is forecasting a further 5% to 7% drop in Canada. Despite that, Fitch says prices remain 20% above pre-pandemic levels and are likely to remain elevated because of high demand and low supply. Separately, higher interest rates have been a key factor in lower affordability.

There have been suggestions that the affordability problem may be exacerbating itself. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation recently reported a 13% decline in housing starts between December 2022 and January 2023. At least some of that is thought to be the result of developers putting projects on hold until market conditions improve.

The Re/Max report indicates two-thirds of Canadians believe governments should take action to address affordability and supply issues. It also suggests 22% of Canadians would like to see new building that fills in the, so-called, “missing middle” in the country’s housing market.

11 Feb

Today’s Labour Force Survey for January showed much stronger than expected job growth and continued low unemployment despite Bank of Canada rate hikes.

General

Posted by: Casey Heppleston

Today’s blog post is provided by Dr Sherry Cooper.  I feel that the continued job growth is partly due to people taking on second jobs to help them through this period of time.  I’d love to hear your thoughts.

Red Hot Labour Market Despite Rate Hikes
Today’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) for January was much stronger than expected, once again calling into question how long the Bank of Canada’s rate pause will last. This report showed no evidence that the labour market is slowing in response to the vast and rapid runup in interest rates.

Employment surged by 150,000–ten times more than expected–and most of the gain was in full-time jobs. The employment rate has returned to pre-pandemic levels. Employment rates among people 55 to 64 have been on a solid upward trend since the summer of 2022, mirroring the rise in employment over that period observed among most demographic groups.

Immigration remains a vital factor in hiring. According to the latest population estimates, in the third quarter of 2022, Canada’s population grew the fastest in over 50 years, mainly driven by an increase in non-permanent residents. In the Labour Force Survey, non-permanent residents represent the majority of a larger group, including those who were not born in Canada and have never been landed immigrants. Non-permanent residents can hold various kinds of work, study, or residence permits. On a year-over-year basis, employment for those not born in Canada and who have never been a landed immigrant was up 13.3% (+79,000) in January, compared with growth in total employment of 2.8% (+536,000).

Average hourly wages rose 4.5% on a year-over-year basis in January, down from 4.8% in December. This is good news for the inflation outlook, but it remains much above the 2% target. Year-over-year wage growth reached 5.0% in June 2022 and peaked at 5.8% in November (not seasonally adjusted).

The unemployment rate remained near a record low, holding steady at 5.0% in January, just shy of the record-low 4.9% in June and July last year.

Employment growth was most robust in wholesale and retail trade, healthcare, education, other services and construction.

Bottom Line

The Canadian jobs market is showing no signs of slowing. This has to make the Bank of Canada at least a bit nervous. The US jobs market data in January was also robust, and the Fed Chairman, Jay Powell, has assured markets that interest rates are likely to rise further.

This is the last jobs report before the Bank of Canada meets again on March 8. The CPI data for January will be released on February 21 and will be the primary factor determining Bank action. If inflation continues to decline, as expected, the rate pause will hold. If not…

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres